Western Lake Erie HAB Forecast


The 2016 bloom is expected to measure 5.5 on the severity index, but could range anywhere between 3.0 and 7.0. The forecast is similar to conditions last seen from 2008 to 2010, although the bloom may be as small as that seen in the relatively mild year of 2004.


The severity index is based on a bloom’s biomass–the amount of its harmful algae. An index above 5.0 indicates blooms of concern. The extreme bloom of 2011 was a 10. Last year’s was 10.5, the greatest on record.


This year’s bloom is expected to first appear in late July and increase in August in the far western basin of Lake Erie. The location and effects will depend on prevailing winds. During calm winds, some areas may experience scums that contain substantial concentrations of algal toxins.


The severity of the western Lake Erie cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom (HAB) depends on the load of bioavailable phosphorus, particularly from the Maumee River during the loading season (March 1- July 31). Total bioavailable phosphorus (TBP) is the sum of dissolved phosphorus (which is ~100% available for HAB development), and the portion of particulate phosphorus that is available for HAB development. The TBP loads are projected to July 30th using river forecasts from the National Weather Service Ohio River Forecast Center.


The seasonal outlook models use nutrient load data collected by Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research and Maumee River discharge models from NOAA’s Ohio River Forecast Center. The models were developed by scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, the University of Michigan, and LimnoTech.


NOAA will provide timely information via twice-weekly bulletins for western Lake Erie that can be received by subscription. Details on the forecasted movement of the bloom and its location and intensity in the water column can be found via NOAA’s experimental tracker.

The figure at left shows cumulative total bioavailable phosphorus (TBP) loads from the Maumee River near Waterville.  Each line denotes a different year.  2016 is in red, the solid line is the measured load to July 4th, the likely range for the remainder of the loading season in the red area and possible range in light red area.  Final expected TBP loads for the 2016 season range from 194 – 232 metrics tons.

The figure at left shows total bioavailable phosphorus (TBP) loads from the Maumee River near Waterville with the current value and date noted within the bar.  The right axis denotes the TBP load from select previous years. Current loads have surpassed 2012, but remain far lower than previous years.

Forecasted bloom compared to previous years.  The wide bar is the likely range of severity based on data from the last 15 years.  The narrow bar is the potential range of severity.

Lake Erie HAB Forecast 2015

MODIS Tera true color image from July 2, 2015.

MODIS Tera true color image from July 2, 2015.  This image shows the large sediment plumes from the Maumee River along with other rivers that enter Lake Erie associated with large storms throughout June.

The figure at left shows cumulative total phosphorus as of July 13, 2015 compared to the range from 2000-2014 (in gray) and the most recent four years (in colors).  The red line and text denotes data from 2015.  Nutrient loads have surpassed those of 2013 and 2014, but remain below 2011.

Projected bloom compared to previous years.  The wide bar is the likely range of severity based on data from the last 15 years.  The narrow bar is the potential range of severity.

NOAA Letter Head


Ben Sherman, NOAA, 301-713-3066

Jill Jentes, Ohio Sea Grant, 614-292-8949

Jim Erickson, University of Michigan, 734-647-1842


NOAA, partners predict severe harmful algal bloom for Lake Erie


Heavy June rains causing heavy nutrient runoff into lake basin


NOAA and its research partners, using an ensemble modeling approach, predict that the 2015 western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom season will be among the most severe in recent years and could become the second most severe behind the record-setting 2011 bloom.


The effects of the cyanobacterial blooms include a higher cost for cities and local governments to treat their drinking water, as well as risk to swimmers in high concentration areas, and a nuisance to boaters when blooms form. These effects will vary in locations and severity with winds, and will peak in September.


The bloom will be expected to measure 8.7 on the severity index with a range from 8.1 to potentially as high as 9.5. This is more severe than the last year’s 6.5, and may equal or exceed 2013, which had the second worse bloom in this century. The severity index runs from a high of 10, which corresponds to the 2011 bloom, the worst ever observed, to zero. A severity above 5.0 indicates blooms of particular concern.


“While we are forecasting a severe bloom, much of the lake will be fine most of the time. The bloom will develop from west to east in the Lake Erie Western Basin, beginning this month. It is important to note that these effects will vary with winds, and will peak in September,” said Richard Stumpf, Ph.D., NOAA’s ecological forecasting applied research lead at NCCOS, who formally presented the forecast in a media event and science presentation at Ohio State University’s Stone Lab on Lake Erie today.


“This is the fourth seasonal harmful algal bloom outlook for Lake Erie that NOAA has issued,” said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., assistant NOAA administrator for the National Ocean Service performing duties of the assistant secretary of commerce for conservation and management. “NOAA’s ecological forecasting initiative, including this Lake Erie seasonal forecast, the NOAA weekly HAB bulletin, and the experimental early season HABs Tracker, provide science-based information that water managers, public health officials, and others need to make critical decisions to protect the health of their communities, understand environmental impacts, and mitigate damages to recreational activities that are a vital part of the region’s economy.”


The 2015 seasonal forecast uses models that translate spring nutrient loading into predicted algal blooms in the western basin of Lake Erie. After a relatively dry April and May, the heavy rains in June produced record discharge and nutrient loadings from the Maumee River, which runs through Toledo, Ohio as well as northeastern Indiana, will result in a more severe bloom. This marks the fourth year that NOAA has issued an annual outlook for western Lake Erie.


Models were developed by scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), the University of Michigan, LimnoTech, the University of Michigan Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research, and the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL). The models use nutrient load data collected by Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research.


“Last summer’s Toledo water crisis was a wake-up call to the serious nature of harmful algal blooms in America’s waters,” said Jeff Reutter, Ph.D., senior advisor to, and former director of, The Ohio State University’s Sea Grant program and Stone Laboratory. “This forecast once again focuses attention on this issue, and the urgent need to take action to address the problems caused by excessive amounts of nutrients from fertilizer, manure and sewage flowing into our lakes and streams.”


To provide more real-time information during the bloom season, NOAA has produced HAB bulletins for western Lake Erie since 2008. The bulletins will continue at the twice-weekly frequency established during last season’s Toledo event, and can be received by a subscription to the NOAA Lake Erie HAB Bulletin.  Additional information on the size and movement of the bloom can be found via NOAA’s experimental HAB Tracker. As the summer progresses, field observations on water quality, algal biomass and toxicity will be collected by NOAA GLERL and CILER, the Ohio State University’s Sea Grant Program and Stone Laboratory, Heidelberg University, the University of Toledo, Ohio EPA, and LimnoTech. USGS will work with NASA in providing satellite tracking of the bloom as well. These results will provide valuable information to regional managers and assist NCCOS scientists in further refining the accuracy of this year’s forecast models.


The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA ecological forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers and the public as part of its stewardship and scientific mandates for coastal, marine and Great Lakes resources. Additionally, NOAA currently provides, or is developing, HABs and hypoxia forecasts for the Gulf of Maine, Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Northwest


NOAA, NASA, EPA, and the U.S. Geological Survey announced, in April, a $3.6 million multi-agency research effort designed to be an early warning system for freshwater nuisance and toxic algal blooms by using satellites that can gather color data from freshwater bodies during scans of the Earth. The project will improve the understanding of the environmental causes and health effects of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms. The effort includes the Great Lakes and will further strengthen initiatives like the NOAA Lake Erie HABs forecast.


Funding to support the NOAA forecast was provided through NCCOS, NASA’s Applied Science Health and Air Quality Program, the EPA-administered Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, the Erb Family Foundation, and the U-M Graham Sustainability Institute.


The research programs supporting this work are authorized under the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act, known as HABHRCA, which was amended and reauthorized by Congress through 2018.


The National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science delivers ecosystem science solutions for NOAA’s National Ocean Service and its partners, bringing research, scientific information and tools to help balance the nation’s ecological, social and economic goals. Visit our website for more about NCCOS research.


NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on FacebookTwitterInstagram and our other social media channels

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